Expert comment Last updated 24 July 2019
Boris Johnson’s appointment as leader of the Conservative Party could end up being an unexpected catalyst for a second referendum, according to a top Brexit researcher.
Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director of Birmingham City University’s Centre for Brexit Studies, said that following Johnson’s successful bid for the Tory leadership, his Brexit stance could end up triggering a general election - or even another referendum.
Johnson has long been an advocate of a hard Brexit, however faced with a ‘hostile’ Parliament and dwindling polling support for the Conservatives, Professor de Ruyter said Britain’s next Prime Minister could find himself ‘forced down the route of another referendum.’
The academic also noted that Johnson’s first steps in the role are likely to involve a tour of major players on the EU stage, revisiting the Northern Ireland backstop and facing a potential no-confidence motion in the House of Commons.
Professor de Ruyter said: “"PM Johnson's first actions on Brexit are likely to be a whistle-stop tour of Brussels, Dublin, Berlin and Paris to try and garner support for reopening the Withdrawal Agreement and neutering provisions relating to the Northern Ireland backstop.
"However, in comparing the NI border to ‘flying to the moon’, it will take more than exhortations to make technological solutions to this real - a point noted by Jeffery Donaldson of the DUP, who acknowledged the practical difficulties entailed of finding viable "technological solutions" to the NI border problem; given that we have had three years now to find them..
“It is more likely that PM Johnson would agree with the EU to Northern Ireland having a different regulatory status to the rest of the UK and effectively put the border on the Irish Sea so the UK could UK could pursue its own trade deals. Where that would leave the DUP is anyone's guess, but in so doing there would go Johnson's majority in the Commons.
“So, EU leaders are unlikely to budge in regards to the Irish backstop, and so the best he could hope for here would be a rewording of the Political Declaration on the future relationship that expresses to never have to enact the Northern Ireland backstop. I don't think this would be enough to satisfy the hard-core Brexiters.
“So we most likely will be left with Boris huffing and puffing about upholding the "will of the people" and "getting on with Brexit" come what may. Parliament will not support him in this regard and if he tries to proceed with leaving with no deal then he will most likely face a motion of no-confidence in September and lose; possibly precipitating an election and a change of government.
“Would he really risk this given that the last YouGov poll only had the Conservatives on 24 per cent, just ahead of the Brexit party at 23 per cent?
“Many Tory MPs clearly think that he can revive their poll fortunes.