UNIVERSITY NEWS LAST UPDATED : 22 JANUARY 2018
Academics at the world’s first Brexit research centre have named the top 10 things they’ve learned over the last 12 months, as the facility celebrates its first anniversary.
Researchers at Birmingham City University’s Centre for Brexit Studies have been examining the process of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union as well as gathering the views of the public, the business community and politicians.
Now they have detailed the key lessons learned in the last year which include the fact the government still have no agreed final vision for Brexit, complications with the Irish border continue and that migration to the UK from the rest of Europe has declined 40 per cent since the Brexit vote.
Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director of Birmingham City University’s Centre for Brexit Studies, said: “Since the referendum Brexit has never been too far from the headlines but it’s interesting to take a step back and look at what we’ve actually learned from the vast number of discussions, debates and column inches dedicated to the subject.
“That is also why we will be hosting our first conference later this year to give people the chance to hear from leading experts in Brexit from across the country who may help people understand the process better and support businesses in setting out their contingency planning.”
The ten key issues highlighted are:
- The UK will not be able to “have its cake and eat it too” in negotiating any future trade deal with the EU. The situation with the Irish Border will largely dictate the extent to which the UK remains subject to EU regulations
- The UK Government has agreed in principle to pay a large divorce bill of around £50 billion
- Theresa May’s “red lines” appear to be blurred – for example the agreement to “have due regard” to the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) in upholding future rights of EU nationals in the UK. Union law related to this is “to be interpreted in line with the case law of the […] CJEU”
- Ambitions by some senior Government figures to re-orient trade to the Commonwealth (or Trans-Pacific Partnership) are unlikely to come to fruition, as production is shaped by geography (i.e., proximity to Europe counts for most of our key industries)
- Migration from the rest of Europe to the UK has declined by over 40 per cent since the Brexit vote in June 2016, though it is unclear to what extent the referendum result has influenced this. Sterling depreciation and economic developments are also important factors
- The Government has not produced any quantitative impact studies of the effects of Brexit on different sectors
- The Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond has revealed that there is still no agreed position in Cabinet of what the end-point of the Government’s Brexit negotiations should be
- The UK Government is open to independent arbitration (similar to the EFTA court) where any differences of opinion emerge between it and the EU. The UK would thus still be subject to supra-national arbitration
- The economic impact of Brexit so far remains unclear, although there has been a large effect on Sterling, which depreciated by over 10 per cent after the referendum result
- The impact of Brexit is likely to have a substantial regional dimension with varied effects across different regions of the UK.
The anniversary comes as the Centre for Brexit Studies prepares to host its first annual conference in March this year giving people a chance to quiz some of the country’s leading experts and key policy figures on the withdrawal from the EU.
For more information visit: www.bcu.ac.uk/brexit