Launch of the August Midlands Perspectives
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) launched its new monthly GDP data series in July, and August will see the second release of the data as well the first comparable Quarterly GDP estimate with the earlier series.
Shifting to a monthly GDP series paradoxically enables the ONS greater time to compile and collate the data and with a revised methodology provided a more accurate understanding of current economic trends.
Under the new ONS model, rolling monthly and three-monthly estimates of how much the economy is producing, with a significantly higher data content. While the new model means the first calendar quarter estimates will be published slightly later than they currently are, more economic data will be provided sooner. The new model also means a more detailed first full calendar quarter estimate will be available. While this might seem like a small change, monthly GDP will allow access to higher quality and quicker economic estimates.
Political factors have continued to cloud economic prospects over the second quarter, with President Trump’s unorthodox approach to the established structures of international relations precipitating fundamental reappraisals of their future purpose. The G7 summit process, NATO and WTO are all coming under severe stain, as the US President appears to favour a new tripartite framework comprising the United States, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation. Whether the norms of accepted international diplomacy can survive this approach is a moot point.
This international context is the backdrop against which the British government is attempting conclude its Brexit negotiations with the EU. Moreover, the inability of the British Government or Parliament to finalise a coherent negotiating strategy, more than two years after the referendum result, has led to the European Commission advising both member states and constituent businesses to actively prepare for a “No Deal Brexit” either in 2019, or 2021.
How these factors will influence future regional economic trends will be the core of our discussion, and hopefully you, or a colleague, will available to participate – despite the difficult timing.
1200: Registration and refreshments
1230: Welcome and Introduction
Chair: Alex De Ruyter, CBS
1235: Panel Presentation and Discussion
Katrina Yu, Economic Advisor, Office of National Statistics
Joe Hayes, Senior Economist, IHS Markit
Paul Forrest, Head of Research, Midlands Economic Forum
1315: Q&A and Discussion
For further information:
Tel: 07738 324 517